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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action

The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".

Nighttime Reality

As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.

Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.

Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.

Every new approach from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.

Strategic Calculations

It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.

Divergent Views

Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.

Current Realities

Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.

While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.