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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion

The pair have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They authors two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has has something to gain from the other's viewpoints."

Appeal for Broader Debate

Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."